On Reddit, ohno linked to a study suggesting that Clinton's result might be due to a shift in the opinions of college-educated women along with their under-representation in polls.
Accordingly, I included the percent holding bachelor's degrees (which I left out of inattention) in the regression analysis. It appears that college education is a very significant factor in explaining Clinton's result: F value 14.3 at p = 0.0002276.
However the Diebold effect remains at F = 16.6 and p = 7.859e-05.
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